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Rabu, 17 Januari 2018 - 22:42:16 WIB
After Salehs Death What Will Happen On Yemen?
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By Mas ud HMN

Ali Abdullah Saleh The strong men from  Yemen's  former president  death few month a go..That clearly changed the situation on the ground. In same time  the Houthi forces now more exposed or more entrenched than before.Question what is back ground?

Many argument avalaible to explain. The first, will the death of Ali Abdullah Saleh lead to a cooling of Yemen's civil war or launch a new round of conflict? Secondly,  if the conflict continues, will the coalition forces find themselves closer to achieving military victory?

As generaly  answers to these questions requires knowledge of the latest riil developments in Yemen, Particularly  regarding the Houthis and the balance of power inside Sanaa in recent months.

Many expert middle east analys  agree, that is a big mistake to view former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh and his supporters – both within the Congress Party and the army – as fixed elements, from the seizure of Sanaa in September 2014 until now.

As we know over that three-year period, the balance of power changed, and Saleh became the weaker party in his relationship with the Houthis. Indeed, he became more of a hostage in the hands of the Houthis, who captured all his sources of power.

Refering resource Al Ahram Online, that  evaluations  point to the likelihood of a big war between the Houthis and the Congress Party, along with wide-scale tribal confrontations in Sanaa, fail to take into account the whole picture. In particular, they fail to consider how the Houthis finished off Saleh’s power base in the regular army, the special forces and the Republican Guard.

As a pragmatic man, Saleh had no reason to suddenly announce his recent change in goals and loyalties – siding with the Arab coalition and the forces of legitimacy – unless he had already lost most of his power base, becoming a “burned card.”

This situation was a reflection of his serious weakness, along with his desire in the final days of his rule to suggest to the coalition that he was a hard nut to crack.(Al Ahram on line Dec 23,20`7)

On my view this point was illustrated by the propaganda accompanying his change of heart, siding with the powers of legitimacy and the coalition, and terminating his alliance with the Houthis.

Yes ! It is true that Saleh’s move and change of heart would have given a big moral boost to the coalition and powers of legitimacy. It would also have denied the Houthis as an important card, as he had acted as their international and political façade for the previous three years.

This, in turn, offered the Houthis.It is  certain benefits and shielded them from various dangers. Namely,  they would have faced had they been alone.

 

 

Ali Abdullah Saleh The Strong Men From Yemen

Bt Mas ud HMN *)                        

(Part Two)

How ever Ali Abdullah Saleh was  a strong men from Yemen He military and pull didcated to his country.A ideolog militansi men.

Most likely, his move would have contributed to rallying the remnants of his supporters. However, his murder eliminated an important opportunity regarding the rearrangement of the power equation in favour of the coalition.Prior to his death, many factors played a role in eliminating Saleh’s influence, robbing him of any actual power.

First, he allowed the Houthis to control various institutions and power centres in Sanaa in a way that enabled them to be engaged in the tribal fabric. This engagement allowed the Houthis to acquire experience that permitted them to devise a formula with the tribes, the provinces and the power centres, deepening their involvement in Sanaa society.

Then, the Houthis seized the former army’s depots of heavy weapons and missiles, some of which they launched at Saudi Arabia. These weapons will be the means by which the Houthis can raise the stakes of the war and add more regional dimensions to it. Some international reports state that the Houthis did not possess missile capabilities before 2011, and others point to Iranian manufacturing marks on the remains of exploded missiles put on display by Saudi Arabia.

Second, three years of war have created a societal mood of retaliation within a tribal society. Some of this has been advantageous to the Houthis and some has worked against their interests. We can say that the war has boosted a kind of political and military doctrine within the country, after the death toll reached 10,000, with around 40,000 injured, combined with catastrophes, disasters, diseases, extreme human anguish and a high human cost.

Thus, reports point to the fact that there is actually no longer a Republican Guard, with its former members having joined the Houthi army and absorbed its doctrine. These reports enjoy some degree of credibility..

The recent coming together of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia was noticeable in relations with Yemen's Al-Islah Party. Prince Mohamed bin Zayed, the crown prince of Abu-Dhabi, and Prince Mohamed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, met with Al-Islah Party leaders in Riyadh.

This indicated that the Arab coalition was seeking to reactivate hitherto ignored Yemeni players, or that there was no consensus on the issue, in light of the Emirates' strategy of refusing to ally with or employ the Yemeni Muslim Brotherhood.

Probably that Saudi Arabia had recently been convinced of the possibility of allying with the followers of Saleh and the possibility of understanding the future role of his son, Ahmed Ali, along with the rest of his supporters in the armed forces.

And then, this would give a moral and material boost to the coalition and the forces of legitimacy. However, this will hardly cause an overall change in the military map unless the option of civil disobedience is developed, encouraging and creating the conditions that will incite the spirit of uprising inside Sanaa and popular disobedience to Houthi rule.

It seems that this is what the nations of the coalition are aiming to achieve To become Yemen stable and strong. So wealth an peace. Insya Allah  .

*)Dr Mas ud HMN writer is Lecture Muhammadiyah Jakarta University UHAMKA Jakarta


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